What’s with the Difference in Forecasts?

For about the last four days or so, Passage Weather has predicted that the weather off the Pacific Coast of mainland Mexico will feature a couple of pretty strong tropical storms, one of which they forecast will sweep by not far from Puerto Vallarta and up toward Cabo San Lucas.

On the other hand, the National Weather Service’s National Hurricane Center has gone for days without mentioning even the possibility of any tropical storms. This morning they finally mentioned there was less than a 30% chance of tropical storms forming in the next 48 hours.

This leaves us wondering if the Passage Weather forecasts are so good or the National Hurricane Center’s are so short-sighted. Personally speaking, we’d prefer to be alerted to the possible approach of a tropical storm or hurricane a week in advance, such as Passage Weather attempts to do.